By Jason Stoffer and Simran Suri
With Inauguration Day approaching, we’re excited to share our internal Maveron Trump Tracker. As we sat down to write our predictions for 2025 in the weeks following Election Day, we found ourselves reflecting on how political shifts can shape the trajectory of innovation. History shows that legislation and political priorities within administrations can deeply influence new business formation and investment trends across industries, particularly within the consumer realm.
We saw this with the Affordable Care Act, which inspired the creation of businesses like Oscar Health ($3.72B market cap) and Cityblock Health (valued at $5.7B), and growing spaces like tech-enabled Medicare Advantage. Other examples include the JOBS Act, which accelerated the growth of platforms like AngelList and Republic, and the IRA, which fueled ClimateTech’s revival and the subsequent $50B that poured into venture-backed solutions in the space.
The Trump Tracker covers Maveron’s core industries, each of which represents a meaningful percentage of consumer spend. It’s specific to our lens on consumer investing, so it isn’t exhaustive by any means. Given how much can change in the next few months, we’ve decided to include our pre-inauguration POV and a set of political catalysts we’re tracking in each industry, for now.
As we learn more over the coming quarters, we’ll be updating these catalysts, and their impact on consumers. We’ll also share the value creation opportunities we’re tracking that come out of these political catalysts. We mentioned a few in our 2025 predictions, including RFK Jr.’s impact on food manufacturing and safety, DOGE’s impact on FDA approval processes and the Department of Education’s support for the Bipartisan Pell Workforce Act, but there are more to come. We can’t pretend to have all the answers, so future updates will also include special features and perspectives from political and industry experts in the Maveron network.
We have conviction that the incoming Trump administration will influence consumer preferences and spending more profoundly than any administration since Reagan. His election has already highlighted deep social divisions that are beginning to shape how consumers engage with brands, products and cultural trends. It’s clear to us that groundbreaking technology and generational businesses will emerge, but it remains to be seen exactly what these next four years hold in store for the consumer. Our hope is that the Trump Tracker can serve as a resource for founders, operators and investors navigating these shifts across industries, verticals and business models. To stay in the loop on our quarterly updates, please subscribe to the Maveron Medium page. As always, we welcome all thoughts, feedback and pushback.
